Scooby, I’ve often heard “time in the market is better than timing the market”. Based on the fact that you’re pulling out, it sounds like maybe you don’t agree with this? Or is this an artifact of the fact that a person in their 60s will inherently have a shorter market timeline than a person in their 20s? Curious to hear your thoughts, I always contribute $500 monthly and never considered pulling anything out of the market or trying to time it in any way, but at my age I can afford to be a bit more risky even if it takes 10+ years to pay off.
Love the updates! I was in total agreement with you in your original post. I think what might happen is he'll tank the stock market then print a ton to get it back up. Also, I have to disagree with the notion that trump won in a landslide. I don't get why people are saying this. He won the popular vote by like 1% and didn't even get a majority. From an EC POV he won by quite a bit but even that I wouldn't call a landslide either. I think that's just a Republican talking point to make it seem like they have more of a mandate than they actually do. Not saying you're just spouting talking points or anything. Just an honest disagreement
Point well taken, "landslilde" gives the wrong idea. The election was close even though when you look at the map of all counties in the USA showing which voted for Trump its almost all red. What will be very interesting is in the midterm elections when people will have a say in what they think of Elon Musk's performance.
Haha oh ya republicans LOVE to show the map of America all colored in to make it seem like they get higher #s than they actually do. I found it really interesting that every single major democratic nation voted out its incumbent except Mexico where the progressives retained the presidency. They passed popular populist policies and the stayed in power while every other corporate politician whether on the left or right was kicked out after covid and inflation. God I love political science! It's so fascinating. Thanks as always for the super interesting topics of conversation!
Scooby, exactly one month after this post, Trump‘s tarifs caused a huge downturn. Do you plan on DCA-ing back into the market now that prices are discounted?
If I were 40 years old, yes! I would be buying back into VOO using dollar cost averaging. The thing is, I am 65 years old. I need to insure that I have enough cash to live off and I am perfectly willing to accept 4.3% interest on T-Bills for the security and liquidity.
Hey Scooby, I was wondering how you account for any tax implications in your overall strategy of pulling out unless your plan only includes tax advantage accounts?
My rule is that I never look at tax consequences. I decide what is the best course of action investment wise and deal with the tax consequences. The last thing I want is regret because I missed out on selling at a huge gain just because i was afraid of paying taxes.
I thought stocks would go up too due to deregulation. I'm still not fully against the idea of stocks going up. For me, it could still go either way over the next 4 years. Low interest rates generally make the s&p 500 increase as well.
I don't think it will drop to 2008 levels though. Even if it does, I researched that dips in the market tend to be pretty short and recover quickly. New lows are still higher than previous lows, so it's better to hold. I used portfolio backtesting to confirm the best investment approach simply for growing my funds. Since I'm a younger investor, I'm going to continue to buy with each paycheck using dollar cost averaging.
If I had the chance to buy bonds to balance risk, I would, but bond returns are too low to be remotely worth it. Now, if interest rates/bonds rates were higher, I'd definitely get some of those. Until then, it's 100% s&p 500 for me and never selling until I hit my safe withdrawal rate.
I am normally a invest and leave it person and its worked for me for decades but now I just dont know. Im not sure the investing rules of the past will apply to the new future. Plus, Im 65 and dont have 30 years to recover losses if there is a 1929 style crash. I am happy earning my 4.3% in T-bills which is 1.3% above the rate of inflation.
I don't think there will be a full-on 1929 style crash because a lot of the US's wealthiest interests rely on stocks for their net worth. Maybe I'm wrong and they finagle something to avoid the negatives of big market crashes though. I've been looking around for more conservative options to invest but at my age it doesn't make sense at the returns they're giving despite the risks. Your approach seems safe.
Supposedly canada's lumber tariffs will make housing go up in costs which I suppose would benefit your rentals
My strategy will be to continue with blue chips and indexes. Long game. Typically the rich beat the piss out of the market over a several year period, the poor see their money disappearing and everything costing more and pull their money out. Either to survive or fear it won't recover. The rich can sit around and not care for periods of years. When all the poors are selling cheap, that is their time to buy more. These are the times they go from millionaires into billionaires. Off the backs of depressed markets that rob the poorest. Just my observation watching markets crash and rebound the 50 years I've been alive.
Right but look back to the stock market crash of 1929, even the rich did not recover from that. If Doge dismantles the SEC and all of the regulations that have minimized crashes severity then we are setting ourselves up for something more serious than a "correction" that one simply weathers. Let free market forces run amok then some firms will become dangerously leveraged which works until a butterfly flaps its wings over Virginia and sets off a chain reaction that causes the market to collapse like in 1929. Im just saying that the old advice that "time in the market beats market timing" was true for the last 80 years but if the market is deregulated then it would be dangerous to assume that advice still works.
I bought Solana on "Trump's suggestion". Doesn't seem now like a smart idea, but it is still in below 200$ range. Can BTC really go past 108k and how? I think retail is much weaker then in previous cycles and there are many more coins on the market which decreases potential x returns when money gets spread in so many directions.
I stick with my "Crypto is gambling" mantra. If you can afford to lose money and are willing to speculate, its fine, but if you want a real investment then try T-bills :)
When you talk about being in real estate, are you refering specifically to: home ownership, rentals, REITs, ETFs? Or do you find some of these more risky (or less valuable in one's portfolio) than others?
I mean active and direct ownership - buy a house, fix it up, rent it out (yourself). No property managers. If you feel you need a property manager then real estate investing is not for you.
Scooby, I’ve often heard “time in the market is better than timing the market”. Based on the fact that you’re pulling out, it sounds like maybe you don’t agree with this? Or is this an artifact of the fact that a person in their 60s will inherently have a shorter market timeline than a person in their 20s? Curious to hear your thoughts, I always contribute $500 monthly and never considered pulling anything out of the market or trying to time it in any way, but at my age I can afford to be a bit more risky even if it takes 10+ years to pay off.
If you are young, yes. I am 65 and dont have much time left in the market :)
Love the updates! I was in total agreement with you in your original post. I think what might happen is he'll tank the stock market then print a ton to get it back up. Also, I have to disagree with the notion that trump won in a landslide. I don't get why people are saying this. He won the popular vote by like 1% and didn't even get a majority. From an EC POV he won by quite a bit but even that I wouldn't call a landslide either. I think that's just a Republican talking point to make it seem like they have more of a mandate than they actually do. Not saying you're just spouting talking points or anything. Just an honest disagreement
Point well taken, "landslilde" gives the wrong idea. The election was close even though when you look at the map of all counties in the USA showing which voted for Trump its almost all red. What will be very interesting is in the midterm elections when people will have a say in what they think of Elon Musk's performance.
Haha oh ya republicans LOVE to show the map of America all colored in to make it seem like they get higher #s than they actually do. I found it really interesting that every single major democratic nation voted out its incumbent except Mexico where the progressives retained the presidency. They passed popular populist policies and the stayed in power while every other corporate politician whether on the left or right was kicked out after covid and inflation. God I love political science! It's so fascinating. Thanks as always for the super interesting topics of conversation!
Scooby, exactly one month after this post, Trump‘s tarifs caused a huge downturn. Do you plan on DCA-ing back into the market now that prices are discounted?
If I were 40 years old, yes! I would be buying back into VOO using dollar cost averaging. The thing is, I am 65 years old. I need to insure that I have enough cash to live off and I am perfectly willing to accept 4.3% interest on T-Bills for the security and liquidity.
Hey Scooby, I was wondering how you account for any tax implications in your overall strategy of pulling out unless your plan only includes tax advantage accounts?
My rule is that I never look at tax consequences. I decide what is the best course of action investment wise and deal with the tax consequences. The last thing I want is regret because I missed out on selling at a huge gain just because i was afraid of paying taxes.
I thought stocks would go up too due to deregulation. I'm still not fully against the idea of stocks going up. For me, it could still go either way over the next 4 years. Low interest rates generally make the s&p 500 increase as well.
I don't think it will drop to 2008 levels though. Even if it does, I researched that dips in the market tend to be pretty short and recover quickly. New lows are still higher than previous lows, so it's better to hold. I used portfolio backtesting to confirm the best investment approach simply for growing my funds. Since I'm a younger investor, I'm going to continue to buy with each paycheck using dollar cost averaging.
If I had the chance to buy bonds to balance risk, I would, but bond returns are too low to be remotely worth it. Now, if interest rates/bonds rates were higher, I'd definitely get some of those. Until then, it's 100% s&p 500 for me and never selling until I hit my safe withdrawal rate.
Im with you, I just dont know anymore.
I am normally a invest and leave it person and its worked for me for decades but now I just dont know. Im not sure the investing rules of the past will apply to the new future. Plus, Im 65 and dont have 30 years to recover losses if there is a 1929 style crash. I am happy earning my 4.3% in T-bills which is 1.3% above the rate of inflation.
I don't think there will be a full-on 1929 style crash because a lot of the US's wealthiest interests rely on stocks for their net worth. Maybe I'm wrong and they finagle something to avoid the negatives of big market crashes though. I've been looking around for more conservative options to invest but at my age it doesn't make sense at the returns they're giving despite the risks. Your approach seems safe.
Supposedly canada's lumber tariffs will make housing go up in costs which I suppose would benefit your rentals
My strategy will be to continue with blue chips and indexes. Long game. Typically the rich beat the piss out of the market over a several year period, the poor see their money disappearing and everything costing more and pull their money out. Either to survive or fear it won't recover. The rich can sit around and not care for periods of years. When all the poors are selling cheap, that is their time to buy more. These are the times they go from millionaires into billionaires. Off the backs of depressed markets that rob the poorest. Just my observation watching markets crash and rebound the 50 years I've been alive.
Right but look back to the stock market crash of 1929, even the rich did not recover from that. If Doge dismantles the SEC and all of the regulations that have minimized crashes severity then we are setting ourselves up for something more serious than a "correction" that one simply weathers. Let free market forces run amok then some firms will become dangerously leveraged which works until a butterfly flaps its wings over Virginia and sets off a chain reaction that causes the market to collapse like in 1929. Im just saying that the old advice that "time in the market beats market timing" was true for the last 80 years but if the market is deregulated then it would be dangerous to assume that advice still works.
Do the opposite of what everyone else is doing works 99% of the time!
Thanks for sharing your perspective Scooby! The markets definitely feel like the Wild West lately! I’m still bullish but only time will tell.
Scary or exciting, depends on your perspective.
I bought Solana on "Trump's suggestion". Doesn't seem now like a smart idea, but it is still in below 200$ range. Can BTC really go past 108k and how? I think retail is much weaker then in previous cycles and there are many more coins on the market which decreases potential x returns when money gets spread in so many directions.
I stick with my "Crypto is gambling" mantra. If you can afford to lose money and are willing to speculate, its fine, but if you want a real investment then try T-bills :)
When you talk about being in real estate, are you refering specifically to: home ownership, rentals, REITs, ETFs? Or do you find some of these more risky (or less valuable in one's portfolio) than others?
I mean active and direct ownership - buy a house, fix it up, rent it out (yourself). No property managers. If you feel you need a property manager then real estate investing is not for you.